About the numbers

Our Methodology

Every number on this site cites its source. Here's exactly how we calculate ROI, where our data comes from, and what we're explicitly leaving out (for now).

The ROI Score

Each career gets a single ROI score from 0–100. It answers one question: how quickly does this career pay back the time and money you put in?

Formula

ROI Score = (Mid-Career Salary / Total Cost) × Time Weight × Demand Weight

The score is normalized to a 30–95 range so it's easy to compare across very different careers (a paid apprenticeship vs. a master's degree).

The Attainability Score

Most career sites stop at ROI. We don't — because realistic probability of getting there matters as much as how good the destination is. The Attainability Score (0–100) estimates the chance a motivated person actually reaches the advertised outcome, based on six weighted factors:

Educational difficulty20%

Licensing & exam difficulty15%

Entry-job competition20%

Career stay-rate (inverse of attrition)15%

Market demand15%

Alternative entry paths available15%

Each factor is scored 0–100 per career. Where published statistics exist (NCLEX pass rate, FAA Academy attrition, CPA exam pass rate, etc.), the factor is marked Data-backed. Otherwise it's an Editorial estimate we'll upgrade as better data becomes available.

Expected Value — the signature metric

Multiply ROI × Attainability ÷ 100 and you get the Expected Value. It answers a better question than salary alone:

What gives the average motivated person the best chance of ending up with a good life?

Formula

Expected Value = (ROI Score × Attainability Score) ÷ 100

A career with a $200K ceiling but a 5% acceptance rate scores lower in EV than one with a $90K ceiling and a 90% completion rate. We display ROI, Attainability, and EV everywhere so you can pick your own lens.

Time weight

Shorter paths get a bonus; longer paths get a penalty. Time you spend training is time you're not earning.

Under 6 months× 1.3

6–12 months× 1.1

1–2 years× 1.0

2–4 years× 0.85

4+ years× 0.7

Demand weight

Based on 10-year job growth from BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Much faster than avg (>10%)× 1.2

Faster than avg (5–10%)× 1.1

Average (2–5%)× 1.0

Slower or declining× 0.8

Where the data comes from

BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook
bls.gov/ooh
Salaries, job growth, employment stats
O*NET Online
onetonline.org
Skills, tasks, work environment
College Scorecard
collegescorecard.ed.gov
Avg cost and outcomes by school
NCES
nces.ed.gov
Tuition and cost of attendance
Industry sources
IBEW, UA, CompTIA, AWS, etc.
Apprenticeship and certification data

What we're leaving out (for now)

Regional cost-of-living adjustments — coming soon.
Opportunity cost of lost wages during full-time degree programs.
Personal fit, lifestyle preferences, and risk tolerance.
Tax burden across earning brackets.

How we update

Data is manually curated and refreshed quarterly. We plan to automate BLS pulls via API in future versions. If you spot a number that looks wrong, tell us — we publish corrections.